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The history and results of petroleum exploration in the Santos Basin, Brazil are reviewed. The regularity of hydrocarbon enrichment and the key exploration technologies are summarized and analyzed using the seismic, gravity, magnetic and drilling data. It is proposed that the Santos Basin had a structural pattern of two uplifts and three depressions and the Aram-Uirapuru uplift belt controlled the hydrocarbon accumulation. It is believed that the main hydrocarbon source kitchen in the rift period controlled the hydrocarbon-enriched zones, paleo-structures controlled the scale and quality of lacustrine carbonate reservoirs, and continuous thick salt rocks controlled the hydrocarbon formation and preservation. The process and mechanism of reservoirs being transformed by CO2 charging were revealed. Five key exploration technologies were developed, including the variable-velocity mapping for layer-controlled facies-controlled pre-salt structures, the prediction of lacustrine carbonate reservoirs, the prediction of intrusive/effusive rock distribution, the detection of hydrocarbons in lacustrine carbonates, and the logging identification of supercritical CO2 fluid. These theoretical recognitions and exploration technologies have contributed to the discovery of deep-water super-large reservoirs under CNODC projects in Brazil, and will guide the further exploration of deep-water large reservoirs in the Santos Basin and other similar regions.
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Based on the seismic and drilling data, casting thin sections, geochemical analysis of oil and rock samples, and hydrocarbon generation history simulation, the hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics and exploration direction of Termit superimposed marine-continental rift basin are discussed. The Termit basin is superimposed with two-phase rifts (Early Cretaceous and Paleogene). The subsidence curves from two wells on the Trakes slope in the east of the basin show high subsidence rate in the Late Cretaceous, which is believed to be high deposition rate influenced by transgression. However, a weak rift may also be developed. The depositional sequences in the Termit basin were controlled by the Late Cretaceous marine transgression cycle and the Paleogene lacustrine transgression cycle, giving rise to two types of superimposed marine-continental “source-sink” deposits. The marine and continental mixed source rocks developed universally in the whole basinduring the marine transgression period, and are overlaid by the Paleogene Sokor 1 reservoir rocks and Sokor 2 caprocks developed during the lacustrine transgression period, forming the unique superimposed marine-continental basin in WCARS. The early low geothermal gradient in the Termit basin resulted in the late hydrocarbon generated by the source rock of Upper Cretaceous Yogou in Paleogene. Mature source rock of Upper Cretaceous Donga developed in the Trakes slope, so that the double-source-supply hydrocarbon and accumulation models are proposed for the Trakes slope in which formed the oil fields. Due to virtue of the newly proposed hydrocarbon accumulation model and the exploration activities in recent years in the Termit superimposed marine-continental rift basin, an additional effective exploration area of about 2500 km2 has been confirmed in the east of the basin. It is believed that potential domains such as Sokor 1, Donga and Upper Cretaceous lithologic traps in the southeast of the basin are key expected targets for exploration and frontier evaluation in future.
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Based on the analysis of Upper Paleozoic source rocks, source-reservoir-caprock assemblage, and gas accumulation characteristics in the Ordos Basin, the gas accumulation geological model of total petroleum system is determined. Then, taking the Carboniferous Benxi Formation and the Permian Taiyuan Formation and Shanxi Formation as examples, the main controlling factors of gas accumulation and enrichment are discussed, and the gas enrichment models of total petroleum system are established. The results show that the source rocks, faults and tight reservoirs and their mutual coupling relations control the distribution and enrichment of gas. Specifically, the distribution and hydrocarbon generation capacity of source rocks control the enrichment degree and distribution range of retained shale gas and tight gas in the source. The coupling between the hydrocarbon generation capacity of source rocks and the physical properties of tight reservoirs controls the distribution and sweet spot development of near-source tight gas in the basin center. The far-source tight gas in the basin margin is mainly controlled by the distribution of faults, and the distribution of inner-source, near-source and far-source gas is adjusted and reformed by faults. Generally, the Upper Paleozoic gas in the Ordos Basin is recognized in four enrichment models: inner-source coalbed gas and shale gas, inner-source tight sandstone gas, near-source tight gas, and far-source fault-transported gas. In the Ordos Basin, inner-source tight gas and near-source tight gas are the current focuses of exploration, and inner-source coalbed gas and shale gas and far-source gas will be important potential targets in the future.
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Based on the data of outcrops, seismic sections, thin sections, heavy mineral assemblages and detrital zircon U-Pb dating, the sedimentary characteristics, lake level fluctuation and provenance characteristics of the Middle Jurassic Lianggaoshan Formation (J2l) in eastern Sichuan Basin, SW China, were investigated to reveal the control of tectonic movements of the surrounding orogenic belts on the sedimentary systems. The J2l mainly developed a delta-lake sedimentary system, which contained a complete third-order sequence that was subdivided into four lake level up-down cycles (fourth-order sequence). The lake basins of cycles I and II were mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan Basin, while the lake basins of cycles III and IV migrated to central Sichuan Basin, resulting in the significant difference in sedimentary characteristics between the north and the south of eastern Sichuan Basin. The provenance analysis shows that there were three types of provenances for J2l. Specifically, the parent rocks of Type I were mainly acidic igneous rocks and from the proximal northern margin of the Yangtze Plate; the parent rocks of Type II were intermediate-acid igneous rocks and metamorphic rocks and from the central parts of the southern and northern Qinling orogenic belts; the parent rocks of Type III were mainly metamorphic rocks followed by intermediate-acid igneous rocks, and from the North Daba Mountain area. It is recognized from the changes of sedimentary system and provenance characteristics that the sedimentary evolution of J2l in eastern Sichuan Basin was controlled by the tectonic compression of the Qinling orogenic belt. In the early stage, the lake basin was restricted to the east of the study area, and Type I provenance was dominant. With the intensifying north-south compression of the Qinling orogenic belt, the lake basin expanded rapidly and migrated northward, and the supply of Type II provenance increased. In the middle and late stages, the uplift of the North Daba Mountain led to the lake basin migration and the gradual increase in the supply of Type III provenance.
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Based on the seismic, logging, drilling and other data, the distribution, structural types and mound-shoal hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics of platform margins of the Sinian Dengying Formation in the Deyang-Anyue Rift and its periphery were analyzed. Four types of platform margins are developed in the Dengying Formation, i.e., single-stage fault-controlled platform margin, multi-stage fault-controlled platform margin, gentle slope platform margin, and overlapping platform margin. In the Gaoshiti West-Weiyuan East area, single-stage fault controlled platform margins are developed in the Deng 2 Member, which trend in nearly NEE direction and are shielded by faults and mudstones, forming fault-controlled-lithologic traps. In the Lezhi-Penglai area, independent and multi-stage fault controlled platform margins are developed in the Deng 2 Member, which trend in NE direction and are controlled by synsedimentary faults; the mound-shoal complexes are aggraded and built on the hanging walls of the faults, and they are shielded by tight intertidal belts and the Lower Cambrian source rocks in multiple directions, forming fault-controlled-lithologic and other composite traps. In the Weiyuan-Ziyang area, gentle slope platform margins are developed in the Deng 2 Member, which trend in NW direction; the mound-shoal complexes are mostly thin interbeds as continuous bands and shielded by tight intertidal belts in the updip direction, forming lithologic traps. In the Gaoshiti-Moxi-Yanting area, overlapping platform margins are developed in the Deng 2 and Deng 4 members; the mound-shoal complexes are aggraded and overlaid to create platform margin buildup with a huge thickness and sealed by tight intertidal belts and the Lower Cambrian mudstones in the updip direction, forming large-scale lithologic traps on the north slope of the Central Sichuan Paleouplift. To summarize, the mound-shoal complexes on the platform margins in the Dengying Formation in the Penglai-Zhongjiang area, Moxi North-Yanting area and Weiyuan-Ziyang area are large in scale, with estimated resources of 1.58×1012 m3, and they will be the key targets for the future exploration of the Dengying Formation in the Sichuan Basin.
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Based on the latest drilling, seismic and field outcrop data, the geological characteristics (e.g. strata, development and sedimentary evolution) of the southern segment of the Late Sinian-Early Cambrian Deyang-Anyue rift trough in the Sichuan Basin are analyzed. First, the strata in the southern segment are complete. The first to second members of Dengying Formation (Deng 1 + Deng 2) are found with relatively stable thickness (400-550 m), and the third to fourth members (Deng 3 + Deng 4) show great thickness difference between the marginal trough and the inner trough, which is up to 250 m. The Cambrian Maidiping Formation and Qiongzhusi Formation in southern Sichuan Basin are relatively thin, with the thickness changing greatly and frequently. Second, the Deyang-Anyue rift trough extended southward during the Deng 4 period, affecting southern Sichuan Basin. Compared to the middle and northern segments of the rift trough, the southern segment is generally wide, gentle and shallow, with multiple steps, and alternating uplifts and sags, which are distributed in finger shape. Third, the Deng 1 + Deng 2 in southern Sichuan Basin records the dominance of carbonate platform and unobvious sedimentary differentiation, and the Deng 4 exhibits obvious sedimentary differentiation, namely, basin-slope-secondary slope-slope-secondary slope-platform margin-restricted platform, from the inner trough to the marginal trough. Fourth, the rift trough in southern Sichuan Basin has evolved in four stages: stabilization of Deng 1-Deng 2, initialization of Deng 3-Deng 4, filling of Maidiping-Qiongzhusi, and extinction of Canglangpu Formation.
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The control of micro-wettability of pore-throat on shale oil occurrence in different types of reservoir spaces remains unclear. Take the shale oil reservoir of the Permian Lucaogou Formation in the Jimusar Sag, Junggar Basin as an example, the reservoir space in laminated shale and the control of micro-wettability of pore-throat on shale oil occurrence were studied by using scanning electron microscope (SEM), multi-stage pyrolysis, quantitative fluorescence, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and other techniques. The results show that there are mainly two types of laminated shale in the Lucaogou Formation, namely laminated shale rich in volcanic materials + terrigenous felsic, and laminated shale rich in volcanic materials + carbonate. The former type contains feldspar dissolution pores and intergranular pores, mainly with felsic mineral components around the pore-throats, which are water-wet and control the free shale oil. The latter type contains carbonate intercrystalline pores and organic pores, mainly with oil-wet mineral components around the pore-throats, which control the adsorbed shale oil. The oil-wet mineral components around the pore-throats are conducive to oil accumulation, but reduce the proportion of free oil. In the Lucaogou Formation, free oil, with high maturity and light quality, mainly occurs in the laminated shale rich in volcanic materials + terrigenous felsic.
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Constrained by the geological burial history of Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation in the southern margin of Junggar Basin, the diagenetic physical simulation experiment was carried out with the low-mature sandstone samples taken from the outcrop area. Then, coupling with the regional geological data, the reformation of reservoirs with different diagenetic intensities by microfractures and the significance of microfractures for development of high-quality reservoirs were discussed. The results show that the large-scale microfractures were formed in the stage of late rapid deep burial, roughly equivalent to the period when organic acids were filled. The microfractures created good conditions for migration of oil and gas in deep and ultra-deep clastic rocks, and also enabled the transport of organic acids to the reservoirs for ensuing the late continuous dissolution of cements and particles. The existence of matrix pores and microfractures in the reservoirs before the rapid deep burial determined how the microfractures formed during rapid deep burial improved the reservoir quality. If matrix pores and microfractures were more developed and the cementation degree was lower before the rapid deep burial, the microfractures would be more developed and the dissolution degree would be higher during the late rapid deep burial, and so the reservoir quality would be improved more greatly, which can increase the reservoir permeability by up to 55%. If cementation was very strong, but matrix pores were not developed and microfractures existed locally before the rapid deep burial, the microfractures would also be more developed during the late rapid deep burial, which can increase the reservoir permeability by 43%. If cementation was strong, matrix pores were absent, and microfractures were not developed, limited microfractures would be formed during the late rapid deep burial, which can increase the reservoir permeability by only 16%. Formation of large-scale microfractures during late rapid deep burial and promotion of such microfractures to the dissolution of organic acids are considered as key diagenetic factors for the development of deep and ultra-deep high-quality reservoirs.
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Using the data of drilling, logging, core, experiments and production, the heterogeneity and differential hydrocarbon accumulation model of deep reservoirs in Cretaceous Qingshuihe Formation (K1q) in the western section of the foreland thrust belt in southern Junggar Basin are investigated. The target reservoirs are characterized by superimposition of conglomerates, sandy conglomerates and sandstones, with high content of plastic clasts. The reservoir space is mainly composed of intergranular pores. The reservoirs are overall tight, and the sandy conglomerate has the best physical properties. The coupling of short deep burial period with low paleotemperature gradient and formation overpressure led to the relatively weak diagenetic strength of the reservoirs. Specifically, the sandy conglomerates show relatively low carbonate cementation, low compaction rate and high dissolution porosity. The special stress-strain mechanism of the anticline makes the reservoirs at the top of the anticline turning point more reformed by fractures than those at the limbs, and the formation overpressure makes the fractures in open state. Moreover, the sandy conglomerates have the highest oil saturation. Typical anticline reservoirs are developed in deep part of the thrust belt, but characterized by "big trap with small reservoir". Significantly, the sandy conglomerates at the top of anticline turning point have better quality, lower in-situ stress and higher structural position than those at the limbs, with the internal hydrocarbons most enriched, making them high-yield oil/gas layers. The exponential decline of fractures makes hydrocarbon accumulation difficult in the reservoirs at the limbs. Nonetheless, plane hydrocarbon distribution is more extensive at the gentle limb than the steep limb.
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Based on 3D seismic and drilling data, the timing, evolution and genetic mechanism of deep strike-slip faults in the central Sichuan Basin are thoroughly examined by using the U-Pb dating of fault-filled carbonate cement and seismic-geological analysis. The strike-slip fault system was initially formed in the Late Sinian, basically finalized in the Early Cambrian with dextral transtensional structure, was overlaid with at least one stage of transpressional deformation before the Permian, then was reversed into a sinistral weak transtensional structure in the Late Permian. Only a few of these faults were selectively activated in the Indosinian and later periods. The strike-slip fault system was affected by the preexisting structures such as Nanhuanian rifting normal faults and NW-striking deep basement faults. It is an oblique accommodated intracratonic transfer fault system developed from the Late Sinian to Early Cambrian to adjust the uneven extension of the Anyue trough from north to south and matches the Anyue trough in evolution time and intensity. In the later stage, multiple inversion tectonics and selective activation occurred under different tectonic backgrounds.
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Based on the comprehensive analysis of core, thin section, logging and seismic data, this study carried out the identification and comparison of Permian Changxing Formation sequences, clarified the typical sedimentary architectures of intra-platform shoal, investigated the vertical and horizontal development and distribution of intra-platform shoal in each sequence, and thus established the sedimentary evolution model of shoal body. The study results are reflected in four aspects. First, there are two complete third-order sequences (SQ1 and SQ2) in Changxing Formation in central Sichuan Basin. SQ1 is generally thick in the north and thin in the south, and SQ2 shows a thickness differentiation trend of “two thicknesses and three thinnesses”. Second, the Changxing Formation in central Sichuan Basin mainly develops intra-platform shoal, inter-shoal sea and intra-platform depression subfacies. In the vertical direction, the intra-platform shoal mainly presents two typical sedimentary sequences: stable superposed and high-frequency interbedded. Third, the stable superimposed sedimentary sequence is developed in the shoal belt at the edge of intra-platform depression, which is composed of two shoal-forming periods and located in the highstand systems tracts (HSTs) of SQ1 and SQ2. The high-frequency interbedded sedimentary sequence is developed in the southern shoal belt of intra-platform depression, which is composed of four shoal-forming periods and mainly located in the HST of SQ2. Fourth, during the SQ1 deposition, the intra-platform shoal was mainly developed at the edge of the intra-platform depression on the north side of the study area, and the inter-shoal sea subfacies was mainly developed on the south side. During the SQ2 deposition, the intra-platform shoal was widely developed in the area, forming two nearly parallel intra-platform shoal belts. The study results provide direction and ideas for exploration of Changxing Formation intra-platform shoal reservoirs in central Sichuan Basin.
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Acoustic wave velocity has been commonly utilized to predict subsurface geopressure using empirical relations. Acoustic wave velocity is, however, affected by many factors. To estimate pore pressure accurately, we here propose to use elastic rock physics models to understand and analyze quantitatively the various contributions from these different factors affecting wave velocity. We report a closed-form relationship between the frame flexibility factor (γ) in a rock physics model and differential pressure, which presents the major control of pressure on elastic properties such as bulk modulus and compressional wave velocity. For a gas-bearing shale with abundant micro-cracks and fractures, its bulk modulus is much lower at abnormally high pore pressure (high γ values) where thin cracks and flat pores are open than that at normal hydrostatic pressure (low γ values) where pores are more rounded on average. The developed relations between bulk modulus and differential pressure have been successfully applied to the Upper Ordovician Wufeng and Lower Silurian Longmaxi formations in the Dingshan area of the Sichuan Basin to map the three-dimensional spatial distribution of pore pressure in the shale, integrating core, log and seismic data. The estimated results agree well with field measurements. Pressure coefficient is positively correlated to gas content. The relations and methods reported here could be useful for hydrocarbon exploration, production, and drilling safety in both unconventional and conventional fields.
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Based on more than 20-year operation of gas storages with complex geological conditions and a series of research findings, the pressure-bearing dynamics mechanism of geological body is revealed. With the discovery of gas-water flowing law of multi-cycle relative permeability hysteresis and differential utilization in zones, the extreme utilization theory targeting at the maximum amount of stored gas, maximum injection-production capacity and maximum efficiency in space utilization is proposed to support the three-in-one evaluation method of the maximum pressure-bearing capacity of geological body, maximum well production capacity and maximum peak shaving capacity of storage space. This study realizes the full potential of gas storage (storage capacity) at maximum pressure, maximum formation-wellbore coordinate production, optimum well spacing density match with finite-time unsteady flow, and peaking shaving capacity at minimum pressure, achieving perfect balance between security and capacity. Operation in gas storages, such as Hutubi in Xinjiang, Xiangguosi in Xinan, and Shuang6 in Liaohe, proves that extreme utilization theory has promoted high quality development of gas storages in China.
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The continuous growth of recoverable reserves in a waterflooding oilfield has a significant impact on the patterns of production evolution. A new production evolution model is established by improving the Weng Cycle model. With the new model, the statistical correspondence between the production decline stage and the reserve-production imbalance is clarified, and the correlation of water cut with the recovery percent of recoverable reserves is discussed, providing quantitative basis of reservoir engineering for dividing development stages of oilfield and defining mature oilfields. According to the statistics of oilfields in eastern China, the time point corresponding to the reserve-production balance coefficient dropping to less than 1 dramatically is well correlated the beginning point of production decline, thus the time when the reserve-production balance coefficient drops dramatically can be taken as the initiation point of production decline stage. The research results show that the water cut and the recovery percent of recoverable reserves have a good statistical match in the high water cut stage, and it is more rational to take both the start point of production decline stage and the water cut of 90% (or the recovery percent of recoverable reserves of 80%) as the critical criteria for defining a mature oilfield. Five production evolution patterns can be summarized as follows: growth-peak plateau-stepped decline, growth-stepped stabilizing-stepped decline, growth-stepped stabilizing-rapid decline, growth-peak plateau-rapid decline, and growth-continuous decline.
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With the help of digital image processing technology, an automatic measurement method for the three-phase contact angles in the pore throats of the microfluidic model was established using the microfluidic water flooding experiment videos as the data source. The results of the new method were verified through comparing with the manual measurement data. On this basis, the dynamic changes of the three-phase contact angles under flow conditions were clarified by the contact angles probability density curve and mean value change curve. The results show that, for water-wetting rocks, the mean value of the contact angles is acute angle during the early stage of the water flooding process, and it increases with the displacement time and becomes obtuse angle in the middle-late stage of displacement as the dominant force of oil phase gradually changes from viscous force to capillary force. The droplet flow in the remaining oil occurs in the central part of the pore throats, without three-phase contact angle. The contact angles for the porous flow and the columnar flow change slightly during the displacement and present as obtuse angles in view of mean values, which makes the remaining oil poorly movable and thus hard to be recovered. The mean value of the contact angle for the cluster flow tends to increase in the flooding process, which makes the remaining oil more difficult to be recovered. The contact angles for the membrane flow are mainly obtuse angles and reach the highest mean value in the late stage of displacement, which makes the remaining oil most difficult to be recovered. After displacement, the remaining oils under different flow regimes are just subjected to capillary force, with obtuse contact angles, and the wettability of the pore throat walls in the microfluidic model tends to be oil-wet under the action of crude oil.
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This paper proposes a methodology for an alternative history matching process enhanced by the incorporation of a simplified binary interpretation of reservoir saturation logs (RST) as objective function. Incorporating fluids saturation logs during the history matching phase unlocks the possibility to adjust or select models that better represent the near wellbore waterfront movement, which is particularly important for uncertainty mitigation during future well interference assessments in water driven reservoirs. For the purposes of this study, a semi-synthetic open-source reservoir model was used as base case to evaluate the proposed methodology. The reservoir model represents a water driven, highly heterogenous sandstone reservoir from Namorado field in Brazil. To effectively compare the proposed methodology against the conventional methods, a commercial reservoir simulator was used in combination with a state-of-the-art benchmarking workflow based on the Big LoopTM approach. A well-known group of binary metrics were evaluated to be used as the objective function, and the Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC) has been proved to offer the best results when using binary data from water saturation logs. History matching results obtained with the proposed methodology allowed the selection of a more reliable group of reservoir models, especially for cases with high heterogeneity. The methodology also offers additional information and understanding of sweep behaviour behind the well casing at specific production zones, thus revealing full model potential to define new wells and reservoir development opportunities.
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Using the visualized experimental device of temporary plugging in hydraulic fractures, the plugging behaviors of temporary plugging particles with different sizes and concentrations in hydraulic fractures were experimentally analyzed under the conditions of different carrier fluid displacements and viscosities. The results show that the greater the carrier fluid viscosity and displacement, the more difficult it is to form a plugging layer, and that the larger the size and concentration of the temporary plugging particle, the less difficult it is to form a plugging layer. When the ratio of particle size to fracture width is 0.45, the formation of the plugging layer is mainly controlled by the mass concentration of the temporary plugging particle and the viscosity of the carrier fluid, and a stable plugging layer cannot form if the mass concentration of the temporary plugging particle is less than 20 kg/m3 or the viscosity of the carrier fluid is greater than 3 mPa?s. When the ratio of particle size to fracture width is 0.60, the formation of the plugging layer is mainly controlled by the mass concentration of the temporary plugging particle, and a stable plugging layer cannot form if the mass concentration of the temporary plugging particle is less than 10 kg/m3. When the ratio of particle size to fracture width is 0.75, the formation of the plugging layer is basically not affected by other parameters, and a stable plugging layer can form within the experimental conditions. The formation process of plugging layer includes two stages and four modes. The main controlling factors affecting the formation mode are the ratio of particle size to fracture width, carrier fluid displacement and carrier fluid viscosity.
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By introducing the coupling flow expressions of main fracture-matrix, secondary fracture-matrix and main fracture-secondary fracture into the traditional main fracture material balance equation, the “main fracture-secondary fracture-matrix” leak-off coupling flow model is established. The pressure-dependent fracture width equation and the wellbore injection volume equation are coupled to solve the pressure-rate continuity problem. The simulation and calculation of the bottomhole pressure drop and fracture network closure after the pump stopping in slickwater volumetric fracturing treatment are realized. The research results show that the log-log curve of pump-stopping bottomhole pressure drop derivative presents five characteristic slope segments, reflecting four dominant stages, i.e. inter-fracture crossflow, fracture network leak-off, fracture network closure and residual leak-off, after pump shutdown. At the initial time of pump shutdown for volumetric fracturing treatment of horizontal well, the crossflow between main and secondary fractures is obvious, and then the leak-off becomes dominant. The leak-off of main and secondary fractures shows a non-uniform decreasing trend. Specifically, the leak-off of main fractures is slow, while that of secondary fractures is fast; the fracture network as a whole presents the leak-off law of fast first, then slow, until close to zero. The influence of fracture network conductivity on the shape of pressure decline curve is relatively weaker than that of fracture network size. The fracture network conductivity is positively correlated with leak-off volume and fracture closure. The secondary fracture size is positively correlated with leakoff volume and closure of the secondary fracture, but negatively correlated with closure of the main fracture. Field data validation proves that the proposed model and simulation results can effectively reflect the closure characteristics of the fracture network, and the interpretation results are reliable and can reflect the non-uniform stimulation performance of each fracturing stage of an actual horizontal well.
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According to the requirements for large-scale project implementation, a four-scale and three-level CO2 storage potential evaluation method is proposed for saline aquifers in a petroliferous basin in China, considering geological, engineering and economic factors. The four scales include basin scale, depression scale, play scale and trap scale, and the three levels include theoretical storage capacity, engineering storage capacity, and economic storage capacity. The theoretical storage capacity can be divided into four trapping mechanisms, i.e. structural & stratigraphic trapping, residual trapping, solubility trapping and mineral trapping, depending upon the geological parameters, reservoir conditions and fluid properties in the basin. The engineering storage capacity is affected by the injectivity, storage security pressure, well number, and injection time. The economic storage capacity mainly considers the carbon pricing yield, drilling investment, and operation cost, based on the break-even principle. Application of the method for saline aquifer in the Gaoyou sag of the Subei Basin reveals that the structural & stratigraphic trapping occupies the largest proportion of the theoretical storage capacity, followed by the solubility trapping and the residual trapping, and the mineral trapping takes the lowest proportion. The engineering storage capacity and the economic storage capacity are significantly lower than the theoretical storage capacity when considering the constrains of injectivity, security and economy, respectively accounting for 21.0% and 17.6% of the latter.
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As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network-LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak (59.4×108 tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak (103.4×108 t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak (6100×108 m3) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about (2800-3400)×108 m3, including (2100-2300)×108 m3 conventional gas (including tight gas), (600-1050)×108 m3 shale gas, and (150-220)×108 m3 coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.
