To study the casing deformation (CD) in shale gas well fracturing caused by natural fracture slip, a fracture face stress model is built based on stress analysis, and a CD prediction model is established based on complex function to analyze factors affecting wellbore shear stress and CD. (1) The fracture and wellbore approach angles have significant impacts on the wellbore shear stress. In Weiyuan shale gas field, Sichuan Basin, under the common wellbore approach angle of nearly 90°, the wellbore is subjected to large shear stress and high risk of CD at the fracture approach angle range of 20° to 55° or its supplementary angle range. (2) When the fracture is partially opened, the wellbore shear stress is positively correlated with the fluid pressure, and negatively correlated with the fracture friction coefficient; when the fracture is fully opened, the wellbore shear stress is positively correlated with the natural fracture area. (3) The lower the elastic modulus and the longer the fracture length, the more serious the CD will be, and the Poisson's ratio has a weak influence on the CD. The deformation first increases and then decreases with the increase of fracture approach angle, and reaches the maximum when the fracture approach angle is 45°. (4) At a given fracture approach angle, appropriately adjusting the wellbore approach angle can avoid high shear stress acting on wellbore, and reasonable control of the fluid pressure in the fracture can reduce the CD risk. The shear stress acting on casing is usually much greater than the shear strength of casing, so increasing casing strength or cementing quality have limited effect on reducing the risk of CD. Caliper logging data has verified that the CD prediction model is reliable, so the model can be used to establish risk analysis chart and calculate deformation value, to provide a reference for quick CD risk prediction in fracturing design.